What has happened on Friday? Nifty Index, as written and expected opened on a flat to negative note at our support zone i.e.,10790-10745, made a low 10758 thereafter, the Index rallied and tested our resistance zone 10810-10847, made a day high 10819.40, the volatility move dragged the Index once again till our support levels i.e,10715, made a day low at 10713 and closed at 10768.05 on a negative note.
What will happen today? Nifty Index may open on a positive note to test 10820-10847 if open, trade and sustain above 10850 then, it may test 10890-10935-10990-11035-11090. Likewise, the immediate support lies at 10795-10760, if trade and sustain below 10760 then, it may re-test 10740-10715-10675-10655-10630-10595-10555 levels.
Special Mention: Nifty Index, last week traded in a range between 10847-10676, this week it should break either side, if it to do so, then the Index will test 10890-10990-11085-11190 levels in the near term and it must close above 10850-10885 for three consecutive trading sessions then, as stated last week the Index may take fresh directional upmove till 11375-11615 before July'20. At the same time if, the Index break 10675-10630 and closes below 10555 then, the sell-off cum profit booking may drag the Index till 10330-10195 very soon, we must watch the todays move and where it is closing. Also remember, as stated last week the long term simple Daily Moving Average i.e., 200 DMA lies at 10886, this level must be surpass and closes above 10880 then, the upper side targets are possible.
Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader may exercise due caution at the higher levels i.e 10847-10886-10990, the profit booking area lies at these levels if, unable to cross and closes above these levels then, book profit in the equity segment and invest in the Nifty 50 stocks, when the Nifty Index trades near 10200-10000 levels, for a short term gain around 10-15%. This is a traders market, to trade for short term gains, rather to wait for long term basis.
The Nifty index current Price Earnings-PE is trading above 28 times, technically it is a highly over bought zone while, the Q4(Mar'20) earnings declined over 50% when compared to Q3 (Dec'19) but, the Index sidelined the fundamentals and moving northwards everyday with the help of few top weighted stocks, shows it is not aligning with the reality also, it infers to exercise due caution at the higher levels.
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