Please refer our Market Update dt.10.11.18, in which we mentioned about the Nifty trend and as expected & written, the USD vs INR moved down from $73 to $69.57 and Crude oil price also down till $50, this move helped the Nifty Spot Index to trade above 10800-10900 levels, thereafter the Global worries dragged the Equity Market downside, Nifty also made 10941 as high on the opening move on 03.12.18 and dragged till 10600 level on 06.12.18, this was mentioned to our Privilege Members in their December month Market Outlook, stated that Nifty strong hurdle at 10940 and  baseline support at 10600.

Now, the question is lingering everyone’s mind that the Nifty Index will it break 10600-10530 levels and continue the correction till 10200-10k or will it move above 10940 then to test 11070-11200 once again and very important question whether the 2018 will give a positive return or not?

The first factor expected is the OPEC (The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) meet and about the Crude Oil production cut, the confusion was prevailed from 05^th to 07th Dec about the Conesus view about the production cut finally they concluded and agrees to cut oil production by 1.20 million barrels per day for first 6 months in 2019, which is market already discounted this outcome, so the Crude oil may trade range bound from now.

The next important factor is the recent held state election in 5 states and the results are expected to declare on 11^th Dec’18, but the Exit polls give tough and neck to neck close contest between Congress and BJP, which will impact the Indian Equity market. If BJP fails to win in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, will drag the Nifty to re-test 10200-10k once again, on the other hand; if they are able to form the Government at least Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, then Nifty may cross 10800 to test 10950-11070-11200 levels and may close with a positive return in 2018 around 5-7% i.e. between 11050-11200 levels.

Investor/Trader may to take risk and bet for the medium term perspective to invest in Nifty 50 companies or Midcap segment on Monday 10^th Dec, if any knee jerk move on downside and Nifty trades near 10600-10500 level for the return of  5-15%, and exit if Nifty spot closes below 10440 levels.